TIME: Almanac 1993/TIME Almanac 1993.iso/time/021891/0218996.000

Text File | 1992-08-28 | 5.9 KB | 127 lines

                                                                                THE GULF WAR, Page 31

ISRAEL

Angling for the Postwar Edge


Fearing pressure to compromise with the Palestinians, Yitzhak
Shamir carefully plots his strategy

By JON D. HULL/JERUSALEM -- With reporting by Christopher
Ogden/Washington


    What a difference a war can make. Before the allied bombing
of Iraq began, Yitzhak Shamir seemed destined never to win any
popularity contests. Devoid of charisma, stubborn and
introverted, the Prime Minister often provoked yawns in Israel
and angst in Washington.

    Ever since air-raid sirens first wailed throughout Israel,
however, Shamir has been praised for his unprecedented
restraint and calm leadership in the face of at least 31 Scud
missile attacks that have left at least four dead and more than
300 wounded. George Bush has telephoned more often in the past
month than in the past two years, and Shamir's ratings at home
have never been higher.

    But Shamir is far too suspicious to fall for such flattery.
Instead, he is already strengthening his defenses for the
political battle he believes Washington and the allies will
wage against his hard-line government once the smoke clears
over Kuwait. Fearing renewed pressure to compromise with the
Palestinians, Shamir is taking advantage of his sudden
popularity to shore up support in Congress, further discredit
the Palestinians and harden his own government against any
territorial concessions.

    The Likud Party leader dug in deeper last week by appointing
extremist ex-General Rehavam Ze'evi as Minister Without
Portfolio and a member of the Cabinet's defense committee. If
Shamir intended to dampen speculation about what Secretary of
State James Baker called "opportunities to build a more secure
world order," he picked the right man. Ze'evi, whose Moledet
(Homeland) Party holds two Knesset seats, advocates  the
transfer to neighboring Arab states of all 1.7 million
Palestinians living in the Israeli-occupied West Bank and Gaza.

    The appointment shocked even Shamir loyalists. Knesset
member Benjamin Begin warned that any member of the governing
coalition who advocated a transfer policy "is, in effect,
confirming the United Nations resolution that says Zionism is
tantamount to racism." Shamir sought to downplay the
controversy as party politics, insisting that transfer was out
of the question. After a stormy Knesset debate, the nomination
was approved by a vote of 61 to 54.

    Shamir's willingness to expend goodwill attests to his
determination to buttress his government against any future
political offensive by Washington. With Moledet, Shamir's
coalition has 66 of 120 seats, lessening his dependence on the
pivotal but fickle religious parties and assuring him that he
can keep the Labor Party on the sidelines. More important,
Ze'evi's presence signals to both the West and the Arab world
that Israel has not gone soft.

    Despite a warning last week by Deputy Chief of Staff Ehud
Barak that the military's "fingers itch" to carry out a
retaliation against Iraq, Shamir is unlikely to give the
go-ahead in the near future unless additional missiles cause
significant casualties or contain chemical warheads. Though his
restraint is billed as a tremendous sacrifice, his stance so
far is based entirely on self-interest. The Jewish state's most
powerful Arab foe is being destroyed, at least 80% of Israelis
are against immediate retaliation, and the government is
scoring valuable points with Washington.

    In return, Shamir is hoping for lenient treatment once the
U.S. turns its attention to the Arab-Israeli conflict. He may
be in for a surprise. Says a U.S. diplomat: "We're going to owe
some Arab countries much more than we owe Israel." Distrusting
Bush and Baker, Shamir is banking instead on the support of
Congress, which will have its eye on the 1992 elections.

    As a precaution, Shamir has also promised to revive his own
peace initiative, which he buried last year after Baker took
it seriously. The plan called for direct peace talks with the
Arab states, as well as elections in the territories to choose
leaders who would then negotiate limited autonomy with Israel.
This time Shamir hopes to quash the P.L.O.'s campaign for a
Palestinian homeland once and for all, while demanding that
Arab nations end their state of belligerency with Israel. He
says, "Arafat and his ilk are the biggest supporters of the
murderer in Baghdad. The time has come for the international
community to distance itself from this terrorist organization."
That process is already under way. Says Samuel Lewis, former
U.S. ambassador to Israel: "The Administration has learned the
need to deal with the Arab states at least in parallel with the
Palestinians."

    While fending off unwelcome peace probes, Jerusalem intends
to transform the widespread sympathy in the U.S. into billions
of dollars in additional military and financial aid. Last month
Finance Minister Yitzhak Modai estimated that Israel would need
$3 billion to cover war-related  costs and $7 billion to $10
billion more in grants and loan guarantees over the next five
years to help absorb Soviet Jewish immigrants. The angry
response in Washington forced Shamir to backpedal furiously,
and the figures are now described as mere talking points.

    The war against Iraq has improved both Israel's image and
its security. But unless Shamir can adapt to the postwar order,
those gains will be short-lived. So far, his ambitious strategy
looks disastrous. As long as he refuses to deal with the
Palestinians, he cannot expect peace with the Arab states. Nor
will Washington automatically provide the billions in aid
needed to house and employ Soviet Jews. If Shamir simply
chooses to hunker down and avoid compromise, his nation may
find itself even more isolated than it was before the war.